On the curve, week ending 2026-05-04
Copper supply shortage widens. Global copper demand is projected to reach 42 million tonnes by 2040 (50% above current levels) while mining production peaks at 33 million tonnes in 2030 and declines thereafter. AI data centres alone will consume 500,000 tonnes annually by 2030; JPMorgan forecasts $12,500 per tonne in Q2 2026. Why it matters: copper is a finite appreciating asset with direct exposure to energy infrastructure constraints; the supply gap is structural, not cyclical.
Right to repair coverage expands. 25.75% of Americans are now covered by enforceable right-to-repair laws as of 1 January 2026. The 2026 legislative template explicitly protects software updates for security vulnerabilities and manufacturing defects, and closes manufacturer loopholes on parts pairing. Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez’s Fair Repair Act has been introduced federally; U.S. PIRG research projects $330 per year in household savings if enacted. Why it matters: repairable hardware underpins permanence and durability; legislative momentum favours manufacturers prioritising long-term repairability.
Starlink Mobile reaches 10 million monthly active users. SpaceX completed its 1,000th Starlink launch of 2026 in April; the constellation now stands at 10,304 operational satellites as of 1 May and is targeting 25 million monthly active users by end-2026. Direct-to-cellular service competes with Globalstar, Iridium, and Skylo. Why it matters: off-grid satellite connectivity directly addresses communications sovereignty for audiences in fragile or geographically remote locations.
Heirloom seed momentum accelerates. Open-pollinated and heirloom varieties are gaining traction because they grow true each generation, enabling on-site saving and replanting without external supply chains. Seed Savers Exchange stewards culturally diverse and endangered crop varieties; the Plant a Seed campaign supports small seed companies and genetic diversity. Why it matters: heirloom seeds are permanence objects with indefinite shelf life that hedge against agricultural consolidation and supply fragmentation.
Water infrastructure pivots to decentralised models. Over 60% of US water utilities report systems operating beyond their intended lifespan; intelligent treatment systems with real-time monitoring and leak detection are emerging as capital priorities. The World Bank estimates $7 trillion needed for global water infrastructure investment by 2030. Why it matters: water sovereignty and productive water management tools address long-term access to critical resources, a direct thesis complement.